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Archive for June, 2011

Weekly Mortgage Rates – 6/30/2011

June 30, 2011 1 comment
Regional Breakdown 30-Yr FRM 15-Yr FRM 5/1-Yr ARM 1-Yr ARM
Average Rates 4.51 % 3.69 % 3.22 % 2.97 %
Fees & Points 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Margin N/A N/A 2.74 2.76

This is a summary of regional mortgage rates from around the nation.

From Freddie Mac

Dave & David Warner

 
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House Prices Through 2015

June 29, 2011 1 comment

 

Real estate news has gotten continually worse lately but there are positive signs starting to pop up out there and even though the recovery might not be proceeding as swiftly as most of us would like, the fact of the matter is, it will begin to trend upward. The KCM Crew has surfaced a new study that takes the opinions of 108 economists and compiled their thoughts on…House Prices Through 2015.

Everyone seems to have an opinion on where home prices are headed. Housing bulls are saying prices may start rebounding as early as later this year. Some housing bears are saying that prices may still drop another 10-15%. What actually is going to happen? No one knows for sure.

However, Macro Markets, a financial technology company, actually surveyed 108 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists for their June 2011 Home Price ExpectationsSurvey. They then averaged all 108 opinions.

Here is what the report says about house prices over the next five years:

  • 2011: prices will depreciate 3.52%
  • 2012: prices will appreciate .46%
  • 2013: prices will appreciate 2.18%
  • 2014: prices will appreciate 2.92%
  • 2015: prices will appreciate 3.47%

Accumulative appreciation (including this year’s projected depreciation) will stand at 5.71% in 2015.

Bottom Line

The experts say home prices will begin to see appreciation next year and return to historic levels of annual appreciation by 2015.

Dave & David Warner

 
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Categories: Uncategorized

You Hear a lot about the Case-Shiller Report….Here it is

June 28, 2011 1 comment

Indications are building that home prices are beginning to recover, the latest is Case-Shiller data for April that show no change in its adjusted composite index of 10 major metropolitan areas. Case-Shiller data are three-month moving averages which indicate actual gains for April given contraction in prior months. There’s still a lot of cities showing negatives but many areas out West, where some of the heaviest of the price contraction hit, are now moving into positive ground including LA and San Francisco. Year-on-year, however, the contraction is deepening, to minus 3.1 percent though this reading is compared against stimulus-boosted sales a year ago

Unadjusted readings are very positive though seasonality plays a big part in the housing market which benefits from warm weather. The unadjusted composite 10 index is up 0.8 percent in the month though the year-on-year rate remains negative at minus 3.1 percent (the same reading as the adjusted rate).

Today’s report falls in line with recent price indications in both the existing and new home sales reports. Housing data tomorrow will be highlighted by pending home sales which the National Association of Realtors has already promised will be very strong.

Definition
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. The key composite series are for the longer-running, original 10-city composite series and the newer and expanded 20-city composite. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The data are compiled for S&P by Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2008 were for November 2007.

[Chart]

 

Dave & David Warner
 

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Mortgage Rates – June 23, 2011

June 23, 2011 1 comment

June 16, 2011

Regional Breakdown 30-Yr FRM 15-Yr FRM 5/1-Yr ARM 1-Yr ARM
Average Rates 4.50 % 3.69 % 3.25 % 2.99 %
Fees & Points 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5
Margin N/A N/A 2.74 2.76

Dave & David Warner
 

 
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Carbon Monoxide Monitors

June 22, 2011 2 comments

All investment properties must have carbon monoxide monitors by July 1, 2011.

Dave & David Warner

 
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Excellent Flyfishing Video – The Magic of the Rod

June 20, 2011 1 comment

http://vimeo.com/25307973

Thank you, Chubbs, Frenzy and Midcurrent

 Dave & David Warner

 
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Chapman University Economic Forecast

June 17, 2011 1 comment

Despite small improvements in consumer confidence and a slight uptick in the leisure and hospitality sector, the economic recovery in Orange County and California will barely crawl forward, according to the Economic Forecast Update released today by the A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University.

Blame lackluster housing and job numbers, said Esmael Adibi, Ph.D., director of the center and one of the chief experts who prepared the report, presented to a sold-out crowd of 850 business people, local leaders and policy-makers at the  Hilton Orange County/Costa Mesa.

“We will not get the real recovery in home prices unless we get significant job creation,” Dr. Adibi said. Moreover, banks are still backed up with foreclosure processing, and housing prices will continue to drop.

But next year will bring gradual improvement and “continuing recovery,” said Chapman President Jim Doti, the Donald Bren Distinguished Chair of Business and Economics and founder of the Chapman forecast. Among the positive signs for the local economy is that rental vacancies have dropped 1.6 percent and show indications of dropping further, President Doti said. That’s an important indicator that family formation is growing, a trend that will carry over into the housing and consumer markets, he said.

And while the recovery process faltered during the aftermath of Japan’s tragic earthquake and tsunami disaster, the rebuilding process there will benefit California, according to the forecast.

“The rebuilding effort is going to be very positive for California — not just manufactured goods, but also food stuff,” Dr. Adibi said, explaining that salt water from the tsunami had damaged some of Japan’s agricultural land.

Other specific highlights from the report:

  • Housing prices declined 4.3 percent during the first quarter. Continued declines  will increase the number of foreclosures and distressed properties, placing pressure on the banking and financial system. Even more damaging to the economy would be the negative wealth effect resulting from lower housing prices.
  • Housing prices in the nation will continue to depreciate, declining 2.7 percent in 2011 and an additional 1.4 percent in 2012.
  • On an average annual basis, the total number of payroll jobs in Orange County will increase by about 20,000 jobs in 2011 and 30,000 jobs in 2012. This translates to growth rates of 1.5 percent in 2011 and 2.2 percent in 2012, roughly the same as California’s job growth projection.
  • As the economy picks up steam by year-end, the Fed will increase the federal funds rate. Chapman forecasters estimate that will happen, at the earliest, in the first quarter of 2012, and are forecasting an increase in the fed funds rate from 0.2 percent to 1.8 percent by the end of the year. Long-term interest rates, like the 10-year treasury bond, will increase 100 basis points, from 3.5 to 4.5 percent.

The forecasts are generated by the Chapman Economic Model, created in 1978 by Dr. Doti and his students. It was the first quarterly econometric model for a metropolitan area and is still used to create the annual forecasts and updates