Home > Uncategorized > Forecast: Flat O.C. rents next two years

Forecast: Flat O.C. rents next two years

The Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast, from the folks at USC’s business school, predicts flat Orange County rents in the next two years – with occupancy rates barely changing.

That’s a bit of a contrast to industry and government reports showing rents slowing increasing in recent months as the local economy modestly improves.

Casden analysis:

  • “Stabilized” employment picture from loss of 75,000 jobs in 2009 to gain of 6,500 jobs, in ’10. Unemployment rate in December 2010 was 8.9 percent, vs. 9.5 percent a year before. “Because of robust employment growth in preceding years, overall unemployment is still lower in Orange County than in neighboring metro areas such as San Diego, Los Angeles or the Inland Empire, and lower than the nation overall.”
  • Demand for apartments increased in year ended Q4 2010 to net 5,830 units, up 39 percent over the prior four quarters. Two Orange County submarkets experienced negative net absorption for the year: Mission Viejo and Central County.
  • Occupancy increased 1.2 percentage points in 2010, to 94.9 percent. Occupancy outpaced the West region by 0.8 percentage points, and had the second-best showing in Southern California.
  • Average rents increased by 0.8 percent in 2010 to $1,475 at year’s end, while “same-store” rents remained unchanged. Orange County’s annual rent performance was the fourth-weakest among the 64 metro areas tracked nationwide by MPF Research.
  • New Orange County apartment openings will drop precipitously in 2011.
  • Orange County home prices, “remain high relative to the rest of Southern California. Both the employment picture and relative lack of home affordability have helped support the multifamily market in 2010.”  Thank you,  OCR

Dave & David Warner

  1. April 9, 2011 at 4:56 PM

    You post informative articles Just bookmarked !!!

  2. April 10, 2011 at 8:52 PM

    .The latest edition of the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast from the folks at USCs business school predicts flat Orange County rents in the next two years with occupancy rates barely changing. .That follows a report from apartment tracker MPF showing that in the first quarter Orange County apartment owners were raising rents at half the pace of landlords across the nation. MPF found Orange Countys effective rents for new tenants the asking rates minus concessions as of March rising 1.5 percent in a year vs.

  3. May 10, 2011 at 11:00 PM

    The flat o effect can be moderated with a little due dilegence. Thanks for sharing. Nice work Dave.

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