Archive for October, 2010

Yellowstone National Park – No fishing this morning! – Part 2

October 30, 2010 Leave a comment

Here is a link to an update of the pictures of the buffalo being chased by the bear in Yellowstone National Park. What a great story with even more incredible pictures.


October 29, 2010 Leave a comment


Categories: Uncategorized

UCLA: O.C. home prices to surge 49%

October 29, 2010 1 comment

October 27th, 2010, 1:00 am by Jeff Collins

Orange County will have a half-million-dollar housing market again by 2012, and home sales volume will rebound by a whopping 43% over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast for the O.C. housing market.

Orange County Forecast
Year Price chg. Sales chg.
2010 $428,381 5.6% 32,139 3.5%
2011 $460,545 7.5% 40,974 27.5%
2012 $503,450 9.3% 45,877 12.0%
2013 $538,750 7.0% 48,832 6.4%
2014 $577,619 7.2% 49,913 2.2%
2015 $615,644 6.6% 47,800 -4.2%
2016 $639,650 3.9% 47,577 -0.5%

Economists with UCLA’s Anderson Forecast foresee O.C. home prices climbing above $500,000 in 2012 for the first time since April 2008. Prices are expected to appreciate from 6.6% to 9.3% a year through 2015 — and, all told, grow 49% in the next six years.

By 2016, prices may be back to, or just under, the all-time highs reached at the pinnacle of the housing boom.

As for home sales, UCLA foresees transactions jumping 27.5 in 2011 and continuing to climb through 2014, almost reaching the boom-time levels.

“Expect a sluggish housing market for the remainder of this year and into next spring,” the forecast states. “At that time, pent up demand, rising affordability, and dissipating fear of a faltering economy should push sales higher.”

While UCLA forecasters don’t expect another recession, they believe that the recovery will be slow, calling the housing market recovery “fragile.”

In addition, there’s a wild card that could change the housing outlook for the worse, UCLA economists warned. If the shadow inventory of homes with delinquent mortgages should abruptly get pushed through the foreclosure process, “this would impact selling values,” the forecast states.

” … Under the alternative scenario, the more conventional recovery in housing would be delayed until later in 2011 or early 2012, though more sales and stable prices will still characterize the housing market for the next 12 months.”

Specifically, the forecast states:

  • The median price of an O.C. home, or price at the midpoint of all sales, would rise to $460,545 in 2011 and to $503,450 in 2012. Currently the median is $445,000, according to DataQuick.
  • Prices would continue rising through 2016, when the projected median would be $639,650. The peak median price for an entire year was $627,548 in 2006, according to UCLA. (The monthly high was $645,000 in June 2007.)
  • Home sales would jump to 40,974 in 2011, up from a projected 32,139 this year.
  • They are projected to peak at 49,913 in 2014, then fall by 4.7% over the next two years. By comparison, homeowners sold 54,120 sales in 2005, the year before the housing slump began.
  • UCLA’s forecast is more optimistic about home sales statewide this year than the California Association of Realtors forecast issued earlier this month. The Realtors projected that California sales this year would drop 10% to 492,000 units; UCLA forecasts that statewide sales will drop 7.6% to 505,270.


Yellowstone National Park – No fishing this morning!

October 28, 2010 Leave a comment


Buffalo and Bear


DAVID MAYBERRY – Star-Tribune staff writer | Posted: Thursday, October 28, 2010 9:30 am

Insider Selling Volume at Highest Level Ever Tracked

October 27, 2010 Leave a comment
Published: Tuesday, 26 Oct 2010 | 2:26 PM ET
By: John Melloy
Executive Producer, Fast Money

Beyond the money

The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, has ever seen since he began tracking the data.

The strategist looked at insider trading activity amongst the top ten companies that make up the Nasdaq such as Apple [AAPL  307.83   -0.22  (-0.07%)   ],Google [GOOG  616.47   -2.13  (-0.34%)   ] and Amazon [AMZN  167.51   -2.44  (-1.44%)   ].



99.60   -0.85  (-0.85%%)

Then he analyzed the biggest members of the Retail HOLDRs ETF like Gap [GPS  19.34   -0.34  (-1.73%)   ]Target [TGT  52.73   -0.41  (-0.77%)   ] and Costco[COST  62.98   -0.70  (-1.1%)   ], as well as the top insiders in the semiconductor industry at companies such as Altera [ALTR 31.04   0.71  (+2.34%)   ],Broadcom [BRCM  41.56   4.34  (+11.66%)   ] and Sandisk [SNDK  37.87   0.68 (+1.83%)   ].

The largest companies in three of the most important leading sectors of the market have seen their executives classified as insiders sell more than 120 million shares of stock over the last six months. Top executives at these very same companies bought just 38,000 shares over that same time period, making for an eye-popping sell to buy ratio of 3,177 to one.

The grand total for the three sectors are “as awful as we have ever seen since we began doing this exercise years ago,” said Newman, who was ahead on such trends as the dangers of high-frequency trading and ETFs before the ‘Flash Crash’. “Clearly, insiders are seeing great value only in cash. Their actions speak volumes for the veracity for the current rally.”



1182.45   -3.19  (-0.27%%)

But the overall market doesn’t seem to care. The S&P 500 is up 16 percent since its 2010 low hit on July 2nd on the back of strong earnings driven by cost-cutting and the hopes for even more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve.

The insider data “is good reason for considerable caution once the price action fades,” said Simon Baker, CEO of Baker Asset Management. Still “insiders normally buy early and sell early too. Longer term — 12 months out — it is more of a red flag.”

Newman isn’t alone in warning about insider selling. The latest report from Vickers Weekly Insider, a publication that makes investments based upon these transactions, shows that total insider sell transactions relative to purchases on the New York Stock Exchange are running at a ratio of more than four to one over the last eight weeks. The normal reading, because of options selling and other factors, is about 2 sales for every buy, according to Vickers.

To be sure, many investors feel the heavy insider selling is just an anomaly based on other reasons.

“These are folks that have had to dip into their stocks for the first time in years, as their salaries have been cut and their bonuses, outside Wall Street, have been significantly curtailed,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist for TD Ameritrade. “ This may speak more to a cash flow problem, then a market belief.”

Still Newman, who is also a favorite commentator of Barron’s columnist Alan Abelson, sees the insider selling as just the latest reason, along with the mortgage foreclosure mess and fully invested mutual fund managers with no fresh powder to put to work, to be cautious on the market.

“At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we expect a significant correction,” said the newsletter editor.

Season Opener Tonight! Lakers go for 3!

October 26, 2010 Leave a comment

Season opener tonight on TNT. Tip off at 7:30!

Been a Laker fan since I can remember! Hopefully they see Boston in the rubber match in the finals this year. Don’t care who they beat but it would be even better if they beat Boston w/ Shaq.  Can’t Wait!

Pictures of fly fishing with the Veterans at Jess Ranch Lakes

October 23, 2010 Leave a comment

Pictures on the post below this post,  may not have posted.



David at Jess Ranch